Data_Sheet_1_Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease.pdf (1.7 MB)
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Data_Sheet_1_Gaussian Doubling Times and Reproduction Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic Disease.pdf

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posted on 03.07.2020, 19:24 by Martin Kröger, Reinhard Schlickeiser

The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave is rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time, it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows us to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors, such as doubling times and reproduction factors, currently in use to judge the lockdowns and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors, including basic reproduction numbers.

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