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Data_Sheet_1_Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020–M.PDF (1.99 MB)

Data_Sheet_1_Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020–May 2021).PDF

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posted on 2023-04-12, 12:09 authored by Inés Barbeito, Daniel Precioso, María José Sierra, Susana Vegas-Azcárate, Sonia Fernández Balbuena, Begoña Vitoriano, David Goméz-Ullate, Ricardo Cao, Susana Monge, the Study Group for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Spain
Background

We estimated the association between the level of restriction in nine different fields of activity and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in Spain, from 15 September 2020 to 9 May 2021.

Methods

A stringency index (0–1) was created for each Spanish province (n = 50) daily. A hierarchical multiplicative model was fitted. The median of coefficients across provinces (95% bootstrap confidence intervals) quantified the effect of increasing one standard deviation in the stringency index over the logarithmic return of the weekly percentage variation of the 7-days SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, lagged 12 days.

Results

Overall, increasing restrictions reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 22% (RR = 0.78; one-sided 95%CI: 0, 0.82) in 1 week, with highest effects for culture and leisure 14% (0.86; 0, 0.98), social distancing 13% (0.87; 0, 0.95), indoor restaurants 10% (0.90; 0, 0.95) and indoor sports 6% (0.94; 0, 0.98). In a reduced model with seven fields, culture and leisure no longer had a significant effect while ceremonies decreased transmission by 5% (0.95; 0, 0.96). Models R2 was around 70%.

Conclusion

Increased restrictions decreased COVID-19 transmission. Limitations include remaining collinearity between fields, and somewhat artificial quantification of qualitative restrictions, so the exact attribution of the effect to specific areas must be done with caution.

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